BTC ESP

Kalshi 15-min windows vs Deribit fair value
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BTC · last 45 min · dashed = open strikes
BEST TIMES TO TRADE: 9 AM – 6 PM ET (US session) — deepest Kalshi books, freshest pricing, edges that show here are real. Window timing: first 3 min = prime entry (quotes lag the fresh strike), last 3 min = snipe zone (near-certain settlements only), middle = books converged, skip. Avoid: windows overlapping scheduled macro releases (CPI 8:30 AM, FOMC 2 PM ET) — price gaps break the math. Late night: thin books — skip unless the edge is fat.
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Edge = fair probability − ask − fee. Green ALERT = logged & texted · amber LIVE = passes now, scanner decides on next pass. Local live copy — updates in place, no reload.